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Projects: Apophis Mission Design Competition
Competition Rules
UPDATED APRIL 30, 2007:
Clarification of a rule in the "Competition Design Scenario" section
Summary
The Planetary Society is conducting a competition to design a mission to
rendezvous with and “tag” a near-Earth asteroid such as Apophis. In
this competition, Apophis, currently with a one in a few thousand probability
of striking Earth in 2036, is treated as an example to facilitate mission
design. The purpose of the competition is to gather a diverse and large
suite of entries that can be a creative and useful starting point for a potential
space agency project to tag any asteroid that may be coming dangerously close
to Earth. $50,000 in prize money will be offered.
The competition is being conducted in cooperation with the European Space
Agency (ESA), NASA, the Association of Space Explorers (ASE), the American
Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), and the Universities Space
Research Association (USRA). Findings of the competition will be presented
at relevant conferences, and winning entries will be shared with space agencies
directly, including those actively cooperating in this competition.
Introduction
Apophis is a near Earth object (NEO) which in 2029 will come closer to Earth
than the geostationary satellite orbit, and will be gravitationally perturbed
to an unknown orbit, one that could hit Earth in 2036. Very precise
tracking may be required to adequately determine the probability of a 2036
impact, and it may turn out that such precise tracking will require “tagging” the
asteroid with a beacon, transponder or reflector of some kind. A mission
to do this has never been studied, and how an asteroid would be tagged
is neither determined nor obvious.
It is possible that radar observations and tracking in the next few years
will obviate the need for a tagging mission or concern about this particular
asteroid: possible, but not certain. But, even in this case, the Apophis
Mission Design Competition will be useful in advancing knowledge and capability
for future missions to any asteroid that may threaten an impact with Earth. We
treat Apophis as an example for mission design.
The Planetary Society, the world’s largest space interest group, has
long supported NEO research, both for its scientific and exploration value
and to understand the potential threat of a NEO impact with Earth. The
competition outlined here is designed to increase public interest, education
and information about NEOs while generating useful mission design studies
for possible future needs. The Society’s timely conduct of the
mission design competition is a contribution of private initiative and educational
outreach, in cooperation with space agency interest in stimulating broad and
creative thinking about a potentially very important problem of the future.
Competition Design Scenario
If the asteroid Apophis goes through a several-hundred-meter-wide “keyhole” in
2029, it will impact Earth in 2036. Imagine that over the coming years,
more Earth-based observations of Apophis are made; however, we still find
that the observations are not sufficient to know whether Apophis will or will
not pass through the 2029 keyhole. A better orbit determination is
needed so we know whether a deflection mission is required to prevent passage
through the keyhole. This can be accomplished using a mission to emplace
a device on or near the asteroid that enables precise tracking of Apophis. This
mission is the focus of the design competition.
The following apply to the competition:
- Tracking from this mission should decrease the size of the 2029 error
ellipse sufficiently fast so that if required, a deflection mission can
be accomplished before the 2029 Apophis close encounter. For the purposes
of this competition, data must facilitate a deflection mission decision
by 2017 (enabling 3 years development for a deflection mission and 9 years
to rendezvous and deflect).
- [UPDATED APRIL 30, 2007]: Assume for this competition that the Apophis
tracking accuracy must be adequate to reduce the long dimension of
the ±3σ error
ellipse to 14 kilometers by 2017, the assumption being that such a level
of confidence would be sufficient to prompt governments to launch a deflection
mission. For reference, this translates approximately to a 10% impact
probability if the keyhole is right in the middle of the 14-kilometer
error ellipse.
- The focus is on the encounter or rendezvous, positioning of whatever
device to assist tracking, and the conduct of asteroid tracking after the
emplacement.
- Any method that will enable tracking of the asteroid at a level that
will sufficiently constrain the problem is permitted. These could include
surface transponders, orbiters, reflectors, beacons or other concepts. Analysis
and justification must be provided and such analysis will be one of the
principal judging criteria.
- Though a full mission design is required, the terminal phase of the mission
is the design focus and will be given the highest weight in judging (assuming
the earlier parts of the mission are determined to be realistic and feasible).
- Though there are not specific constraints, justification of all major
mission parameters (e.g., mass to be delivered to vicinity of the asteroid,
power required) should be provided and justified as realistic.
- Similarly, approximate end-to-end cost estimates should be provided,
including operational costs and any ground assets required. Analogies with other
missions or pieces of missions can be used to help generate these costs. Though
no cost cap is provided here, overall cost will be a consideration in
comparing proposals.
- For major and significant systems or hardware (such as spacecraft, launch,
or ground-based assets), proposer should demonstrate ability to use existing
systems or state the requirements for new systems. If new systems
are required, proposer must demonstrate the relevance and maturity of the
technologies proposed and justify the steps, including costs and risks,
needed to bring the technology to an acceptable level of maturity on a short
enough time frame.
More details on assumptions and rules can be found in the “Proposal
Details” section below.
Organizational Structure of the Competition
The Planetary Society is holding the competition. The prize money was
contributed and competition made possible by Dan Geraci, a member of The Planetary
Society Board of Directors, together with donations from Planetary Society
members around the world. The competition will be conducted in
cooperation with:
- European Space Agency (ESA)
- NASA
- American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA)
- Association of Space Explorers (ASE)
- Universities Space Research Association (USRA)
The competition Advisory Committee includes:
- Daniel Durda, Southwest Research Institute, Planetary Scientist
- Louis Friedman, The Planetary Society, Executive Director
- Lewis Peach, USRA, Chief Engineer
- Russell “Rusty” Schweickart, Apollo astronaut and ASE NEO
Committee Chairman
- Gen. Simon “Pete” Worden, Director, Ames Research Center
Judges will be selected at a later date.
Schedule
March 1, 2007: Notice of Intent due
August 31, 2007, 5:00 p.m. Pacific time: Proposals
due
Notice of Intent
Teams intending to submit a proposal should submit a Notice of Intent to
Propose, with a maximum length of 300 words, to Bruce Betts (bruce.betts@planetary.org). It
should outline organization(s) involved, as well as key individuals involved,
though details can change in the final proposal.
Proposal Details
Proposals must be written in English and submitted electronically in Microsoft
Word or Adobe PDF format. Proposals are limited to 10,000 words,
and no more than 40 pages total, including diagrams, figures, attachments,
etc.
Proposals shall include:
- A list of team members including phone numbers, email addresses, affiliations,
and job titles (C.V.s for team members are welcome but not required). One
team member should be designated as the primary point of contact.
- An Executive Summary of the proposal, limited to 500 words.
- A mission scenario including:
- A technical description of the tagging device, the method of emplacement,
and conduct of tracking; and
- Analysis of the expected precision and accuracy of the proposed tracking
method.
- Sources of information used in the proposal (e.g., cost analogies, technical
readiness of certain technologies, etc.) should be referenced.
- Proposals should explicitly state to whom any awarded prize money should
be sent (naming individual, individuals, or organization)
- See the section above titled "Competition Design Scenario" for
more design requirements and constraints.
Proposals may be submitted by email to Bruce Betts (bruce.betts@planetary.org)
or by mailing a CD or DVD to the address at the bottom of this page.
Judging
A judging panel put together by The Planetary Society shall make recommendations
on winner(s) and awards. Proposals will be judged upon the following
(approximate relative weights shown in parentheses) technical content and
detail (40%); realism of assumptions (10%, but if judged to be totally unrealistic,
will be weighted much higher); perceived feasibility (technical, cost, schedule,
etc.) (20%); estimated probability of success, including reliability(20%);
and originality (10%). Based upon recommendations of the judging panel,
final decisions will be made by The Planetary Society Board of Directors.
Eligibility
The mission design competition is open to anyone from any country. Individuals
or teams may submit proposals. The competition is open to teams from
academia and industry as well as student groups and private groups. Though
government employees and those often funded by government monies may participate,
government funding may not be used to support any of the proposing team in
terms of salary or other direct costs, although facilities and equipment previously
paid for by government funding may be used to support the effort. The
one exception to this restriction is salaries paid at government-supported
education facilities (e.g., a public university) that are not from research
grants (e.g., teaching salaries so a teacher could work with students on this)
are allowed.
Copyright
Copyright of the submitted proposals shall remain with the proposers. However,
by submitting an entry to the Apophis Mission Design Competition, all proposers
agree that The Planetary Society and other participating organizations are
granted non-exclusive reproduction rights to all content contained within
the proposals, unless specifically called out as proprietary. Even if
there are proprietary materials, proposers agree that at least the executive
summary of their proposal shall not be proprietary and can be made public,
and that the entire proposal can be shared with government space agencies
as well as judges in the competition and employees and board members of The
Planetary Society. Proposers also agree to permit The Planetary Society
and other participating organizations to mention their names and/or affiliations
in connection with the competition. The Planetary Society may also present
ideas and findings generated by this competition at relevant conferences. Winning
entries will be shared with space agencies directly, including those actively
cooperating in this competition.
Awards
Prize Money. $50,000 in prize money will be awarded. Based
upon the quality of the entries, the judges will determine how to distribute
the award money among one or more prizewinners. Of this, at least $25,000
will be awarded to the first prizewinner. Based upon the quality of
the entry pool, any remaining prize money may be distributed as honorable
mention awards. A prize of $5,000 is reserved for the best submission
received from a student team (who is also not precluded from winning the first
prize), in which all substantive work was performed by current students (high
school, undergraduate, or graduate), with no more than two faculty advisors. To
be eligible for the student award, proposers must state their eligibility
as well as list all team members and their student or faculty status.
Travel. Additionally, one member of the first prize
winning team will receive award travel, including transportation, food, and
lodging, to attend three days of a future major science or engineering conference
to present their results. The Planetary Society shall determine which
conference in consultation with the winner. The Planetary Society shall
not be responsible in the event that the prizewinner fails to obtain any necessary
travel documents; if they are required but not obtained, the award travel
offer shall become void.
Changes
Competition rules, schedule, and prizes are subject to change without prior
notice. Changes will be posted on the competition website http://planetary.org/apophis
Contact for More Information:
Dr. Bruce Betts, Director of Projects
The Planetary Society
Email: bruce.betts@planetary.org
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